{"F": {"ts_code": "600376.SH", "name": "首开股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.33, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.8712, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 858995.2116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.0, 19.8, 16.6, 11.5, 4.8, 13.6], "rev_series": [442.3, 678.0, 479.2, 477.6, 242.1, 301.0], "np_series": [31.4, 2.6, -4.6, -63.4, -81.4, -66.2], "roe_series": [10.3, 0.8, -1.6, -25.6, -46.1, -56.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 236.9, "np_ttm": -66.2, "ocf_ttm": 18.2, "fcf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_yield": 17.8, "ocf_yield": 21.2, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -11.3, "npm_median": -12.4, "roe_median": -25.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 22.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 985.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 79.4, "debt_mv": 1147.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.5, "np_yoy": 0.1, "np_vol": 482.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["房产销售", 47.0], ["酒店物业经营等", 2.0], ["酒店物业经营", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 151.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -49.6, "ret_pivot": 42.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.8, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -40.5, "ret_250": 18.9, "mdd_250": -60.8, "vol_250": 76.4, "pos_52w": 41.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 2, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -66.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 79%,有息负债 986 亿,经营现金流/市值 21.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 17.8%(经营现金流/市值 21.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -1% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "首开股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}