{"F": {"ts_code": "600370.SH", "name": "*ST三房", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2555, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 615467.4067, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.4, 4.8, 5.7, 0.2, -0.1, -1.9], "rev_series": [163.0, 194.8, 228.4, 234.8, 241.4, 198.8], "np_series": [5.6, 6.3, 8.2, -2.7, -4.9, -8.8], "roe_series": [15.8, 10.3, 12.3, -4.2, -8.1, -16.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 206.6, "np_ttm": -6.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 0.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": -13.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": -4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.3, "fix_assets": 83.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.19, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 77.4, "debt_ebitda": 11.8, "debt_ratio": 68.4, "debt_mv": 125.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": 101.9, "np_vol": 62.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["聚酯切片", 29.0], ["瓶级聚酯切片", 29.0], ["PTA(行业)", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.8, "ret_prev2_year": -24.0, "ret_ytd": -32.3, "ret_pivot": 8.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -44.0, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -64.5, "vol_250": 64.7, "pos_52w": 42.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 7, "hard": 82, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 0.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -1390%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -1390%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 9% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "*ST三房:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}