{"F": {"ts_code": "600369.SH", "name": "西南证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010109", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.12, "pe_ttm": 22.0126, "pb": 1.0442, "dv_ttm": 2.3301, "total_mv": 2737784.9492, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [31.7, 31.0, 17.9, 23.3, 25.7, 32.1], "np_series": [10.9, 10.4, 3.1, 6.0, 7.0, 10.6], "roe_series": [4.9, 4.1, 1.2, 2.4, 2.7, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.7, "np_ttm": 12.4, "ocf_ttm": -53.0, "fcf_ttm": -54.0, "fcf_yield": -19.7, "ocf_yield": -19.3, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 27.3, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 9.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.08, "interest_debt": 249.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.0, "debt_mv": 91.1, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.5, "np_cagr3": 50.9, "rev_yoy": 37.7, "np_yoy": 42.9, "np_vol": 55.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 21.7, "fwd_pe2": 19.6, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["证券经纪业务", 12.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 9.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 16.4, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 20.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": -3.8, "ret_250": -16.0, "mdd_250": -22.8, "vol_250": 22.9, "pos_52w": 84.7}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 38}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["西南证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 2.7%,PB 1.04倍,股息率 2.3%,分红率 60%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 4.5%(1/PE)与股息率 2.3% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 10% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "西南证券:PE 比行业中位高 6.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}