{"F": {"ts_code": "600368.SH", "name": "五洲交通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.34, "pe_ttm": 12.6073, "pb": 0.9562, "dv_ttm": 3.2028, "total_mv": 698589.7926, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.3, 52.7, 58.0, 60.6, 57.6, 55.0], "rev_series": [17.2, 18.3, 15.0, 16.2, 18.2, 13.5], "np_series": [5.6, 7.0, 5.8, 6.6, 7.0, 5.6], "roe_series": [12.4, 13.9, 10.5, 11.0, 10.6, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.9, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": -18.1, "fcf_yield": -25.8, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 57.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 17.7, "npm_median": 40.3, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.8, "fix_assets": 68.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.96, "capex_dep": 8.81, "interest_debt": 42.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 39.9, "debt_mv": 60.5, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": -1.5, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": -0.8, "np_vol": 17.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 7.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通行费收入", 43.0], ["交通业", 43.0], ["物流贸易", 6.0], ["商贸物流", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.0, "ret_prev2_year": 67.5, "ret_ytd": 14.8, "ret_pivot": 43.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 20.5, "ret_120": 10.7, "ret_250": 2.1, "mdd_250": -24.0, "vol_250": 21.8, "pos_52w": 98.4}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 73, "hard": 91, "bondness": 67}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 40%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 -3.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 57%、毛利率 57.6% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路公路:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -25.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 8.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.6 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 20% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "五洲交通:PE 比行业中位低 2.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.8个百分点。"]}}