{"F": {"ts_code": "600367.SH", "name": "红星发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.18, "pe_ttm": 121.6933, "pb": 4.7199, "dv_ttm": 0.1137, "total_mv": 1200098.5062, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.1, 24.3, 19.5, 13.0, 18.3, 23.8], "rev_series": [13.8, 22.0, 28.5, 22.0, 22.0, 21.4], "np_series": [0.6, 2.6, 2.1, 0.3, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [4.1, 17.4, 12.7, 1.3, 3.8, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 8.3, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.5, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 18.4, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 11.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": -24.4, "rev_yoy": -2.0, "np_yoy": 7.4, "np_vol": 176.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无机盐产品", 51.0], ["其他产品", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 20.0], ["锰盐产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.1, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 101.5, "ret_pivot": 297.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": -34.9, "ret_120": 41.9, "ret_250": 114.4, "mdd_250": -59.8, "vol_250": 72.1, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 49, "hard": 52, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 121.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 114%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -35% / 42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "红星发展:PE 比行业中位高 85.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}