{"F": {"ts_code": "600362.SH", "name": "江西铜业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.86, "pe_ttm": 13.7045, "pb": 1.8121, "dv_ttm": 2.1696, "total_mv": 15880077.0284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.5, 4.0, 3.0, 2.7, 3.5, 4.4], "rev_series": [3185.6, 4427.7, 4799.4, 5218.9, 5209.3, 5446.2], "np_series": [23.2, 56.4, 59.9, 65.1, 69.6, 71.3], "roe_series": [4.1, 8.7, 8.4, 9.2, 9.6, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5948.2, "np_ttm": 115.9, "ocf_ttm": -39.7, "fcf_ttm": -93.0, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": -2.5, "gm_median": 3.5, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 391.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 1404.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 65.5, "debt_mv": 88.4, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": 6.0, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": 106.8, "np_vol": 54.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 9.6, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["阴极铜", 20.0], ["铜杆线", 12.0], ["黄金", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 186.8, "ret_prev2_year": 21.7, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 152.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": 16.0, "ret_120": -8.5, "ret_250": 76.6, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 70, "hard": 21, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.7 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.5%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.7 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 77%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 16% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "江西铜业:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}