{"F": {"ts_code": "600361.SH", "name": "创新新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20011129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.63, "pe_ttm": 16.3856, "pb": 1.2166, "dv_ttm": 2.4242, "total_mv": 1354956.6327, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.1, 3.2, 3.4, 3.2, 3.4, 3.2], "rev_series": [434.9, 594.3, 693.2, 728.4, 809.4, 770.4], "np_series": [9.2, 8.7, 10.9, 9.6, 10.1, 7.9], "roe_series": [31.6, 17.4, 14.7, 10.6, 9.7, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 814.4, "np_ttm": 8.3, "ocf_ttm": 12.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 0.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 26.1, "fix_assets": 76.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 133.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 61.4, "debt_mv": 98.2, "payout": 34.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": -10.3, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 11.7, "np_vol": 297.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["棒材", 24.0], ["铝杆线缆", 13.0], ["铝杆", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.5, "ret_prev2_year": -22.6, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 9.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -31.4, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 70, "hard": 42, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.4 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.2%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.4 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "创新新材:PE 比行业中位低 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}