{"F": {"ts_code": "600359.SH", "name": "新农开发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "其他种植业", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.25, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 284608.5488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 25.4, 30.1, 26.7, 23.0, 15.6], "rev_series": [5.6, 6.9, 6.5, 5.5, 5.7, 4.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 8.1, 11.8, 11.3, 4.8, -1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 5.4, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.25, "capex_dep": 3.78, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 22.2, "debt_ratio": 55.6, "debt_mv": 22.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -31.1, "np_yoy": -1.9, "np_vol": 66.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["种业", 23.0], ["棉花分部", 23.0], ["其他分部", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": 4.3, "ret_pivot": 26.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.9, "ret_60": 19.6, "ret_120": -3.0, "ret_250": 2.2, "mdd_250": -33.3, "vol_250": 37.6, "pos_52w": 92.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 54, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 20% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "新农开发:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点。"]}}