{"F": {"ts_code": "600358.SH", "name": "国旅联合", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.25, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 128.7094, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 610656.585, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.6, 8.6, 9.0, 10.5, 5.0, 5.0], "rev_series": [5.2, 8.2, 5.6, 5.4, 3.6, 4.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, 0.1, -0.1, -0.6, -0.4], "roe_series": [7.6, 15.3, 4.0, -7.1, -50.4, -54.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": -2.3, "roe_median": -7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 128.71, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 89.1, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": 61.5, "np_vol": 147.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["广告营销", 32.0], ["电商销售业务", 11.0], ["电商销售", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.0, "ret_prev2_year": -30.3, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": 67.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -8.2, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 76.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 11, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 89%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -8% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "国旅联合:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点。"]}}