{"F": {"ts_code": "600356.SH", "name": "恒丰纸业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.85, "pe_ttm": 13.5794, "pb": 0.9484, "dv_ttm": 2.1469, "total_mv": 291639.8025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 20.5, 17.4, 17.4, 17.8, 19.5], "rev_series": [18.3, 20.2, 24.6, 26.5, 27.7, 28.2], "np_series": [1.3, 1.0, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2, 2.0], "roe_series": [6.0, 4.5, 5.5, 5.6, 4.6, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.6, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 15.4, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -13.2, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 15.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.95, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 26.7, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 29.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": 15.3, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": 18.0, "np_vol": 33.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 12.5, "fwd_pe2": 11.0, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["烟草工业用纸", 29.0], ["其他纸类", 9.0], ["其他纸", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.3, "ret_prev2_year": -2.8, "ret_ytd": 3.0, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.4, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": -3.6, "ret_250": -7.8, "mdd_250": -29.8, "vol_250": 35.8, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 45, "hard": 59, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 15.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 7% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "恒丰纸业:PE 比行业中位低 7.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}