{"F": {"ts_code": "600354.SH", "name": "敦煌种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.66, "pe_ttm": 33.2496, "pb": 5.4035, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 457076.6186, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.1, 21.4, 24.4, 27.8, 32.2, 36.6], "rev_series": [9.5, 9.2, 10.0, 11.6, 11.6, 11.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.2, 1.5, 3.2, 6.6, 8.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.1, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 9.0, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 27.8, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 10.3, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.0, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.4, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 37.5, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": 33.2, "rev_yoy": 20.9, "np_yoy": 165.7, "np_vol": 70.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["种子业务", 30.0], ["种子", 30.0], ["食品行业", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.3, "ret_ytd": 33.8, "ret_pivot": 81.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 40.4, "ret_60": 63.4, "ret_120": 17.0, "ret_250": 28.9, "mdd_250": -40.0, "vol_250": 45.8, "pos_52w": 95.0}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 54, "hard": 26, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 40% / 63% / 17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "敦煌种业:PE 比行业中位低 38.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}