{"F": {"ts_code": "600352.SH", "name": "浙江龙盛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.52, "pe_ttm": 21.3798, "pb": 1.2694, "dv_ttm": 5.1917, "total_mv": 4073171.5388, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.6, 33.8, 30.1, 26.1, 27.9, 30.2], "rev_series": [156.1, 166.6, 212.3, 153.0, 158.8, 133.1], "np_series": [41.8, 33.7, 30.0, 15.3, 20.3, 18.3], "roe_series": [16.0, 11.6, 9.6, 4.7, 6.0, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 141.0, "np_ttm": 19.1, "ocf_ttm": 34.7, "fcf_ttm": 30.9, "fcf_yield": 7.6, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 30.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": 15.7, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.9, "fix_assets": 61.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 244.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 59.9, "payout": 53.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -14.4, "np_cagr3": -15.2, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": 8.2, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.1, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["染料", 27.0], ["中间体", 10.0], ["助剂", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.7, "ret_prev2_year": 33.2, "ret_ytd": 22.6, "ret_pivot": 60.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": 21.8, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": 25.3, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 51, "hard": 13, "bondness": 84}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 -14.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.4 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 22% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "浙江龙盛:PE 比行业中位低 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.6个百分点。"]}}