{"F": {"ts_code": "600350.SH", "name": "山东高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.17, "pe_ttm": 15.9261, "pb": 1.6778, "dv_ttm": 4.1298, "total_mv": 4916758.5036, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.5, 43.3, 34.7, 30.4, 26.1, 33.0], "rev_series": [113.7, 162.0, 184.9, 265.5, 284.9, 239.3], "np_series": [20.4, 30.5, 28.6, 33.0, 32.0, 32.1], "roe_series": [6.4, 8.9, 7.4, 8.1, 7.5, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 241.5, "np_ttm": 30.9, "ocf_ttm": 69.6, "fcf_ttm": 31.3, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 14.1, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 16.8, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 140.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 3.39, "interest_debt": 756.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 64.1, "debt_mv": 153.8, "payout": 77.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": 3.9, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": -7.0, "np_vol": 14.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 15.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.6, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["山东省通行费收入", 11.0], ["山东地区收费路桥业务", 11.0], ["销售商品收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.2, "ret_prev2_year": 66.2, "ret_ytd": 9.0, "ret_pivot": 33.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": 7.7, "ret_250": 12.4, "mdd_250": -25.1, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 54, "hard": 13, "bondness": 78}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 14个百分点,营收 3 年复合 9.0%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 77%、股息率 4.1%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 756 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 7.8 倍,资产负债率 64%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.1% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 15.9 倍 倒过来就是 6.3% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 14.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 3.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.9 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -4% / 8%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "山东高速:PE 比行业中位高 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}