{"F": {"ts_code": "600346.SH", "name": "恒力石化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.02, "pe_ttm": 11.9217, "pb": 1.861, "dv_ttm": 1.9453, "total_mv": 13388367.8196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 15.4, 8.2, 11.2, 9.9, 13.1], "rev_series": [1523.7, 1979.7, 2223.2, 2347.9, 2362.7, 2009.9], "np_series": [134.6, 155.3, 23.2, 69.0, 70.4, 70.7], "roe_series": [32.3, 29.8, 4.2, 12.2, 11.4, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1953.2, "np_ttm": 112.3, "ocf_ttm": 151.4, "fcf_ttm": 97.2, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 11.3, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.5, "fix_assets": 1725.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 1633.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 73.1, "debt_mv": 122.0, "payout": 45.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.3, "np_cagr3": 45.0, "rev_yoy": -5.5, "np_yoy": 136.2, "np_vol": 93.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.4, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 10.6, "fwd_pe2": 9.4, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["炼化产品", 34.0], ["PTA(产品)", 21.0], ["PTA", 21.0], ["聚酯产品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.1, "ret_prev2_year": 23.1, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 63.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 16.8, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": 13.3, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 47.9, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 37, "hard": 100, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 11.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.9 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 17% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "恒力石化:PE 比行业中位低 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}