{"F": {"ts_code": "600339.SH", "name": "中油工程", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油气及炼化工程", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.36, "pe_ttm": 74.5828, "pb": 0.6934, "dv_ttm": 0.7738, "total_mv": 1875937.56, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.9, 7.0, 7.9, 8.4, 8.2, 7.3], "rev_series": [707.0, 798.3, 835.9, 803.4, 859.2, 996.5], "np_series": [8.6, 4.6, 7.2, 7.5, 6.4, 3.6], "roe_series": [3.5, 1.9, 2.9, 2.9, 2.4, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1017.9, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 116.1, "fcf_ttm": 111.7, "fcf_yield": 59.5, "ocf_yield": 61.9, "gm_median": 7.9, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -0.0, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 3.3, "fix_assets": 43.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.69, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 124.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 79.2, "debt_mv": 66.5, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": -20.9, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": -22.3, "np_vol": 37.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 28.8, "fwd_pe2": 25.8, "fwd_g1": 159.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 2.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["油气田地面工程", 15.0], ["炼油与化工工程", 13.0], ["炼油与化工", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.2, "ret_prev2_year": 20.2, "ret_ytd": 0.7, "ret_pivot": 18.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 3.5, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 42.1, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 70, "hard": 5, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 74.6 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 7.9%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 59.5%(经营现金流/市值 61.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "中油工程:PE 比行业中位高 12.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.5个百分点。"]}}