{"F": {"ts_code": "600338.SH", "name": "西藏珠峰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.48, "pe_ttm": 21.7622, "pb": 2.5944, "dv_ttm": 0.1484, "total_mv": 1232355.3496, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.6, 68.9, 47.8, 34.4, 46.7, 53.4], "rev_series": [11.3, 20.5, 19.7, 14.7, 16.4, 24.3], "np_series": [0.3, 7.2, 4.1, -2.2, 2.3, 5.1], "roe_series": [1.1, 29.7, 13.3, -6.5, 6.7, 12.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.3, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 47.8, "gm_std": 11.2, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -11.8, "npm_median": 20.0, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 49.8, "fix_assets": 37.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.59, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 35.7, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 12.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": 7.5, "rev_yoy": 44.8, "np_yoy": 18.0, "np_vol": 1072.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铅精粉", 28.0], ["铅精矿(含银)", 28.0], ["锌精矿(含银)", 15.0], ["锌精矿", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.8, "ret_prev2_year": -12.3, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 51.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -21.5, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": 9.5, "mdd_250": -59.5, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 48.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 80, "bondness": 18}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 37 亿,占总资产 50%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.5%,股息率 0.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 50%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.8%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.8 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -22% / -27%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "西藏珠峰:PE 比行业中位高 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 37.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点。"]}}