{"F": {"ts_code": "600333.SH", "name": "长春燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.82, "pe_ttm": 170.1612, "pb": 2.1891, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 415358.9374, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.8, 22.9, 16.2, 15.6, 17.2, 16.2], "rev_series": [15.6, 18.0, 19.0, 23.1, 23.0, 24.6], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, -1.0, -0.7, -0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [0.8, 1.2, -4.8, -3.4, -1.7, -0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": -1.5, "roe_median": -1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.5, "fix_assets": 44.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 26.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.9, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 64.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.1, "np_yoy": 60.4, "np_vol": 221.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.7, "ret_prev2_year": 10.1, "ret_ytd": 23.3, "ret_pivot": 73.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.9, "ret_60": 25.4, "ret_120": 18.0, "ret_250": 29.2, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 85.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 41, "hard": 100, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 170 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 27 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 170.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 25% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "长春燃气:PE 比行业中位高 148.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点。"]}}