{"F": {"ts_code": "600330.SH", "name": "天通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.26, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3116, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3238998.7344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.9, 26.0, 25.4, 21.2, 20.4, 19.4], "rev_series": [31.6, 40.8, 45.1, 36.8, 30.7, 32.0], "np_series": [3.8, 4.2, 6.7, 3.2, 0.9, -1.7], "roe_series": [8.7, 8.5, 10.4, 4.1, 1.1, -2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.7, "np_ttm": -5.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 49.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 4.31, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 52.9, "debt_ratio": 32.5, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": -636.7, "np_vol": 118.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 1575.6, "fwd_pe2": 109.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 1340.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电子材料产品销售", 31.0], ["电子材料", 31.0], ["材料销售及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.5, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": 100.0, "ret_pivot": 345.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.1, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": 42.5, "ret_250": 189.2, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 83.5, "pos_52w": 73.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 71, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 189%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -10% / 42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "天通股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}