{"F": {"ts_code": "600328.SH", "name": "中盐化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8012, "dv_ttm": 0.395, "total_mv": 936971.7705, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 25.9, 27.9, 23.8, 17.5, 9.5], "rev_series": [97.5, 134.1, 181.6, 161.0, 128.9, 113.4], "np_series": [5.5, 14.8, 18.6, 11.5, 5.2, 0.7], "roe_series": [9.3, 20.8, 19.7, 9.9, 4.3, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 102.3, "np_ttm": -2.5, "ocf_ttm": -5.3, "fcf_ttm": -75.9, "fcf_yield": -81.0, "ocf_yield": -5.6, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 10.4, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.2, "fix_assets": 119.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 6.99, "interest_debt": 54.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 36.6, "debt_mv": 58.0, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -14.5, "np_cagr3": -65.9, "rev_yoy": -18.5, "np_yoy": -616.4, "np_vol": 89.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 47.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.4, "ret_prev2_year": 4.4, "ret_ytd": -22.2, "ret_pivot": -6.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": -36.8, "ret_250": -23.0, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 34.3, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 74, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 54 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -81.0%(经营现金流/市值 -5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 6.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "中盐化工:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}