{"F": {"ts_code": "600325.SH", "name": "华发股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.63, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2277, "dv_ttm": 0.7533, "total_mv": 723816.0023, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.3, 25.8, 20.2, 18.1, 14.3, 8.7], "rev_series": [510.1, 512.4, 591.9, 721.4, 599.9, 834.3], "np_series": [29.0, 31.9, 25.8, 18.4, 9.5, -95.0], "roe_series": [14.3, 15.3, 12.7, 8.8, 4.5, -65.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 642.6, "np_ttm": -133.2, "ocf_ttm": 95.3, "fcf_ttm": 48.6, "fcf_yield": 67.1, "ocf_yield": 131.7, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 81.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.23, "capex_dep": 16.31, "interest_debt": 1297.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 68.7, "debt_mv": 1793.2, "payout": 38.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -50.2, "np_yoy": -2225.7, "np_vol": 429.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 87.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["房地产开发", 44.0], ["其他", 4.0], ["物业服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -25.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": -37.7, "ret_pivot": -51.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -34.9, "ret_250": -49.4, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 46.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 4, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -133.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 1298 亿,经营现金流/市值 131.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 67.1%(经营现金流/市值 131.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 16.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "华发股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}