{"F": {"ts_code": "600320.SH", "name": "振华重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.13, "pe_ttm": 24.3914, "pb": 1.3706, "dv_ttm": 1.8168, "total_mv": 2170959.9821, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 9.5, 13.4, 13.5, 12.8, 13.7], "rev_series": [226.6, 259.8, 301.9, 329.3, 344.6, 362.6], "np_series": [4.2, 4.4, 3.7, 5.2, 5.3, 7.3], "roe_series": [2.8, 3.0, 2.5, 3.4, 3.4, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 364.9, "np_ttm": 8.9, "ocf_ttm": 43.4, "fcf_ttm": 34.5, "fcf_yield": 15.9, "ocf_yield": 20.0, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.3, "fix_assets": 237.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 197.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 76.7, "debt_mv": 90.8, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.3, "np_cagr3": 25.3, "rev_yoy": 1.3, "np_yoy": 45.9, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["港口机械", 29.0], ["重型装备", 6.0], ["海上重型装备", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.9, "ret_prev2_year": 20.7, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -29.3, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 44, "hard": 47, "bondness": 59}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 46%,PE TTM 24.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.3 倍,PEG 0.71。", "自由现金流 34.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.9%(经营现金流/市值 20.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.4 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -3% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "振华重工:PE 比行业中位低 17.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}