{"F": {"ts_code": "600319.SH", "name": "亚星化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.7684, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 252786.5288, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.7, 0.2, 15.6, 2.3, 2.0, -1.4], "rev_series": [0.5, 1.9, 8.5, 8.2, 9.1, 8.6], "np_series": [-0.3, 1.9, 1.1, 0.1, -1.0, -1.6], "roe_series": [-49.7, 142.6, 25.0, 1.0, -16.3, -33.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -17.2, "ocf_yield": -1.8, "gm_median": 2.0, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": -2.03, "gm_chg_2022": 5.8, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 74.3, "fix_assets": 22.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.77, "capex_dep": 5.11, "interest_debt": 13.3, "debt_ebitda": 20.1, "debt_ratio": 88.9, "debt_mv": 52.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.5, "np_yoy": 32.3, "np_vol": 798.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化工产品", 33.0], ["化工", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": 93.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": -29.7, "ret_pivot": 77.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 44.7, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 100, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 74%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 2.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 20.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 74%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 2.0%,稳定度 -203%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.0%,稳定度 -203%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 5.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -7% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "亚星化学:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.9个百分点。"]}}