{"F": {"ts_code": "600316.SH", "name": "洪都航空", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.39, "pe_ttm": 489.9573, "pb": 4.3174, "dv_ttm": 0.0525, "total_mv": 2322733.8655, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.6, 2.7, 2.7, 3.5, 3.4, 2.9], "rev_series": [50.7, 72.1, 72.5, 37.3, 52.5, 74.5], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [2.6, 2.9, 2.7, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 86.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 2.9, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.32, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 64.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": -34.4, "rev_yoy": 80.0, "np_yoy": 171.9, "np_vol": 35.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 147.6, "fwd_pe2": 77.5, "fwd_g1": 232.0, "fwd_g2": 91.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["其他航空产品", 48.0], ["教练机", 2.0], ["非航空产品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.7, "ret_prev2_year": 51.9, "ret_ytd": -7.2, "ret_pivot": 59.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.9, "ret_60": 21.4, "ret_120": -16.4, "ret_250": -23.9, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 11, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 490.0 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 147.6 倍,次年 77.5 倍,PEG 1.62。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 490.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 25% / 21% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "洪都航空:PE 比行业中位高 416.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}