{"F": {"ts_code": "600315.SH", "name": "上海家化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "品牌化妆品", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.62, "pe_ttm": 32.6983, "pb": 1.7711, "dv_ttm": 1.2805, "total_mv": 1251684.812, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.0, 58.7, 57.1, 59.0, 57.6, 62.6], "rev_series": [70.3, 76.5, 71.1, 66.0, 56.8, 63.2], "np_series": [4.3, 6.5, 4.7, 5.0, -8.3, 2.7], "roe_series": [6.7, 9.6, 6.6, 6.7, -11.6, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.3, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 58.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 13.8, "pb_calc": 1.77, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 50.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": -17.2, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 43.4, "np_vol": 133.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 28.8, "fwd_pe2": 23.4, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["个护", 23.0], ["个人护理", 23.0], ["美妆产品", 14.0], ["美妆", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 69, "hard": 10, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.7 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.7%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "上海家化:PE 比行业中位高 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点。"]}}