{"F": {"ts_code": "600313.SH", "name": "农发种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.31, "pe_ttm": 116.1413, "pb": 3.4812, "dv_ttm": 0.123, "total_mv": 848964.394, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.2, 9.6, 10.8, 8.4, 7.6, 7.5], "rev_series": [36.6, 37.6, 52.5, 67.6, 55.6, 66.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 2.3, 1.3, 0.5, 0.8], "roe_series": [1.9, 2.4, 14.2, 7.1, 2.5, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 76.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.2, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 3.48, "capex_dep": 2.6, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 37.2, "debt_mv": 5.6, "payout": 11.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": 32.8, "np_yoy": -16.6, "np_vol": 219.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化肥", 69.0], ["农产品", 20.0], ["农药类", 6.0], ["农药", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.6, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": 13.7, "ret_pivot": 37.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.9, "ret_60": 26.2, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": 11.9, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 44, "hard": 26, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 116.1 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 116.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 26% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "农发种业:PE 比行业中位高 44.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}