{"F": {"ts_code": "600312.SH", "name": "平高电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.38, "pe_ttm": 21.7425, "pb": 2.3305, "dv_ttm": 1.6241, "total_mv": 2765405.6094, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.5, 13.7, 17.6, 21.4, 22.4, 23.9], "rev_series": [97.8, 92.7, 92.7, 110.8, 124.0, 125.2], "np_series": [1.3, 0.7, 2.1, 8.2, 10.2, 11.2], "roe_series": [1.4, 0.8, 2.3, 8.4, 10.0, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 122.0, "np_ttm": 12.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 21.4, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 21.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 42.9, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 38.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": 74.1, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 22.9, "np_vol": 125.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 19.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["输配电设备", 83.0], ["开关全生命周期", 8.0], ["组部件及其他", 8.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.1, "ret_prev2_year": 57.9, "ret_ytd": 18.4, "ret_pivot": 10.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": 13.2, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": 27.9, "mdd_250": -34.0, "vol_250": 41.0, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 51, "hard": 16, "bondness": 33}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 23%,PE TTM 21.7 倍 但前瞻 PE 19.6 倍,PEG 0.85。", "自由现金流 1.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(19 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.7 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 13% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "平高电气:PE 比行业中位低 21.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点。"]}}