{"F": {"ts_code": "600308.SH", "name": "华泰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5476, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 496016.5554, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 13.2, 10.0, 7.4, 6.1, 7.0], "rev_series": [123.1, 149.0, 151.7, 132.9, 130.5, 124.6], "np_series": [7.0, 8.1, 4.3, 2.4, 0.4, -0.7], "roe_series": [8.2, 9.0, 4.6, 2.6, 0.4, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 122.6, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -7.4, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 7.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.2, "fix_assets": 77.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.55, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 39.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 43.7, "debt_mv": 80.1, "payout": 49.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -72.1, "np_vol": 102.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机制纸", 43.0], ["化工产品", 22.0], ["化工", 22.0], ["纸浆产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 6.7, "ret_ytd": -16.2, "ret_pivot": 6.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 0.0, "ret_120": -22.1, "ret_250": -9.9, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 32.1, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 31, "hard": 77, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.4%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.4%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 0% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "华泰股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}