{"F": {"ts_code": "600307.SH", "name": "酒钢宏兴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7457, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 926976.8952, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 13.1, 3.0, 7.1, 5.3, 7.8], "rev_series": [370.2, 486.7, 446.1, 394.5, 348.4, 305.7], "np_series": [5.2, 14.9, -24.8, -10.5, -26.2, -20.0], "roe_series": [4.3, 11.4, -19.8, -9.8, -29.6, -30.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 311.4, "np_ttm": -15.7, "ocf_ttm": 15.9, "fcf_ttm": -8.5, "fcf_yield": -9.2, "ocf_yield": 17.2, "gm_median": 7.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": -5.6, "roe_median": -19.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 73.4, "fix_assets": 377.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 257.4, "debt_ebitda": 24.1, "debt_ratio": 89.7, "debt_mv": 277.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.6, "np_yoy": 66.7, "np_vol": 159.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.7, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 18.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -3.9, "ret_120": -33.3, "ret_250": -16.4, "mdd_250": -43.4, "vol_250": 41.0, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 73%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 24.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 73%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.2%(经营现金流/市值 17.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 1.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -4% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "酒钢宏兴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}