{"F": {"ts_code": "600305.SH", "name": "恒顺醋业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.82, "pe_ttm": 48.9753, "pb": 2.2565, "dv_ttm": 1.7595, "total_mv": 753384.7354, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 37.6, 34.4, 33.0, 34.7, 32.4], "rev_series": [20.1, 18.9, 21.4, 21.1, 22.0, 22.9], "np_series": [3.1, 1.2, 1.4, 0.9, 1.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [13.5, 5.2, 6.3, 3.2, 3.8, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.9, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 15.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 85.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": 9.2, "np_vol": 39.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 45.8, "fwd_pe2": 40.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 3.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["调味品业务", 50.0], ["醋", 33.0], ["其他业务", 7.0], ["料酒", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.0, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 1.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": -15.9, "mdd_250": -24.2, "vol_250": 16.9, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 54, "hard": 63, "bondness": 58}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 16 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.8%,股息率 1.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 34.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 17%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 3% / -12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "恒顺醋业:PE 比行业中位高 21.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}