{"F": {"ts_code": "600303.SH", "name": "曙光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载客车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3347, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 205081.26, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.1, 0.5, 8.5, 1.5, 0.4, 1.8], "rev_series": [26.2, 24.8, 16.7, 13.6, 14.8, 15.6], "np_series": [0.5, -4.6, -3.3, -4.7, -3.4, -3.6], "roe_series": [1.9, -16.8, -14.4, -24.5, -22.5, -30.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": -3.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -7.7, "ocf_yield": -6.5, "gm_median": 1.5, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": -1.02, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": -23.6, "roe_median": -22.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 13.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 71.0, "debt_mv": 37.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -41.6, "np_yoy": 12.5, "np_vol": 376.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售商品", 32.0], ["车桥", 21.0], ["整车", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": -31.5, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": 31.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 75.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 68, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点;资产负债率 71%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.5%,稳定度 -102%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.7%(经营现金流/市值 -6.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.5%,稳定度 -102%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -1% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "曙光股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.3个百分点。"]}}