{"F": {"ts_code": "600301.SH", "name": "华锡有色", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.97, "pe_ttm": 29.8564, "pb": 5.5863, "dv_ttm": 0.8672, "total_mv": 2844656.0475, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.1, 20.2, 9.2, 38.1, 40.4, 36.6], "rev_series": [7.3, 3.9, 5.9, 29.2, 46.3, 58.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.5, 0.2, 3.1, 6.6, 8.0], "roe_series": [2.8, 16.6, 5.5, 16.3, 17.5, 18.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.5, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": 15.0, "fcf_ttm": 14.0, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 36.6, "gm_std": 12.2, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 7.1, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 16.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 31.6, "fix_assets": 27.3, "goodwill_ratio": 6.3, "pb_calc": 5.59, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 29.5, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 114.4, "np_cagr3": 253.5, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 39.8, "np_vol": 53.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 22.1, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["有色金属产品", 47.0], ["锡锭", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0], ["铅锑精矿", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 128.5, "ret_prev2_year": 36.3, "ret_ytd": 18.4, "ret_pivot": 219.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.8, "ret_60": -23.2, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": 56.8, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 70.8, "pos_52w": 63.0}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 70, "hard": 51, "bondness": 17}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 27 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他小金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.9%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.6%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -23% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "华锡有色:PE 比行业中位低 7.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点。"]}}