{"F": {"ts_code": "600295.SH", "name": "鄂尔多斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "冶钢辅料", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.71, "pe_ttm": 14.7573, "pb": 1.9235, "dv_ttm": 4.7587, "total_mv": 4116999.9373, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 35.7, 29.4, 22.6, 20.6, 25.3], "rev_series": [231.4, 364.7, 363.9, 305.5, 284.0, 257.4], "np_series": [15.3, 60.9, 47.3, 29.0, 18.5, 23.6], "roe_series": [11.6, 37.8, 24.3, 13.9, 8.7, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 264.4, "np_ttm": 27.9, "ocf_ttm": 53.6, "fcf_ttm": 48.0, "fcf_yield": 11.7, "ocf_yield": 13.0, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.9, "fix_assets": 158.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 54.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 43.6, "debt_mv": 13.3, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.9, "np_cagr3": -20.7, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": 43.2, "np_vol": 128.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["硅铁", 17.0], ["PVC树脂", 9.0], ["服装", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.3, "ret_ytd": 26.2, "ret_pivot": 107.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.2, "ret_60": 14.0, "ret_120": -3.3, "ret_250": 52.4, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 42.3, "pos_52w": 87.2}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 46, "hard": 54, "bondness": 80}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 83%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 -10.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.7%(经营现金流/市值 13.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.8 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 14% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "鄂尔多斯:PE 比行业中位低 15.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}