{"F": {"ts_code": "600293.SH", "name": "三峡新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻璃制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0531, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 338762.34, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 33.2, -3.3, 11.7, 8.1, 3.0], "rev_series": [25.8, 31.1, 18.9, 21.8, 17.3, 11.9], "np_series": [-20.6, 0.9, -2.9, 0.4, 0.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [-71.2, 4.2, -16.1, 2.6, 0.7, -1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -8.5, "ocf_yield": -5.9, "gm_median": 8.1, "gm_std": 12.4, "gm_stab": -0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -17.6, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.2, "fix_assets": 18.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 49.1, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -14.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -37.3, "np_yoy": -197.7, "np_vol": 234.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.0, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": 21.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 85, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 -53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.5%(经营现金流/市值 -5.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 -53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -20% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "三峡新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}