{"F": {"ts_code": "600292.SH", "name": "电投水电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.05, "pe_ttm": 48.297, "pb": 3.1907, "dv_ttm": 0.4654, "total_mv": 5740843.0021, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 13.5, 13.0, 14.6, 13.1, 30.3], "rev_series": [36.8, 44.4, 41.4, 42.5, 47.2, 121.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, -0.3, 0.5, 0.4, 5.3], "roe_series": [0.5, 1.0, -0.6, 1.1, 0.7, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 163.8, "np_ttm": 17.1, "ocf_ttm": 67.7, "fcf_ttm": 14.9, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 11.8, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.5, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.9, "fix_assets": 475.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 331.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 67.3, "debt_mv": 57.7, "payout": 45.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 43.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": 123.1, "np_vol": 151.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力销售", 34.0], ["脱硫脱硝电价收入", 8.0], ["环保工程", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.5, "ret_prev2_year": 116.2, "ret_ytd": -7.2, "ret_pivot": 146.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -5.9, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 41.8, "pos_52w": 71.7}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 31, "hard": 100, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%、固定资产占比 72%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 50%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 11.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 50%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -9% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "电投水电:PE 比行业中位高 20.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}