{"F": {"ts_code": "600283.SH", "name": "钱江水利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.16, "pe_ttm": 20.9482, "pb": 1.3949, "dv_ttm": 3.0637, "total_mv": 457633.1184, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 40.0, 38.0, 31.8, 37.3, 35.3], "rev_series": [13.2, 15.4, 18.3, 22.2, 23.2, 25.5], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 1.7, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [7.2, 7.4, 8.1, 9.0, 7.9, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.2, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -4.1, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 37.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.8, "fix_assets": 43.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.39, "capex_dep": 1.6, "interest_debt": 32.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 58.1, "debt_mv": 71.5, "payout": 58.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": 7.8, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": 2.3, "np_vol": 6.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["水供给及水处理业务", 27.0], ["供水业务", 27.0], ["管道安装服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 11.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -22.2, "vol_250": 19.8, "pos_52w": 83.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 58, "hard": 72, "bondness": 59}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 7个百分点,营收 3 年复合 11.8%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 58%、股息率 3.1%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 33 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍,资产负债率 58%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.1% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 20.9 倍 倒过来就是 4.8% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 45%、毛利率 37.3% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(环境治理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 1.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / -12%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "钱江水利:PE 比行业中位低 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.9个百分点。"]}}