{"F": {"ts_code": "600282.SH", "name": "南钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.74, "pe_ttm": 10.7182, "pb": 1.0498, "dv_ttm": 5.3966, "total_mv": 2922253.134, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.9, 11.7, 10.8, 10.6, 11.9, 14.1], "rev_series": [531.2, 756.7, 706.7, 725.4, 618.1, 579.9], "np_series": [28.5, 40.9, 21.6, 21.3, 22.6, 28.7], "roe_series": [14.1, 16.3, 8.2, 8.1, 8.6, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 601.8, "np_ttm": 27.3, "ocf_ttm": 29.5, "fcf_ttm": 14.7, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 11.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.0, "fix_assets": 329.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.05, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 235.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 58.1, "debt_mv": 80.6, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": 9.9, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": -9.6, "np_vol": 31.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 53.0, "earn_yield": 9.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 9.7, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢铁", 49.0], ["钢材销售", 30.0], ["其他销售", 20.0], ["环境分部", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": 44.5, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 27.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -22.1, "vol_250": 33.9, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 44, "hard": 75, "bondness": 80}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.7 倍 粗算,约 53%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "南钢股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点。"]}}