{"F": {"ts_code": "600281.SH", "name": "华阳新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 42.0662, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 246398.558, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.7, 16.8, 10.2, -10.2, -8.5, 4.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 2.8, 3.3, 2.7, 3.9, 4.5], "np_series": [0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -2.0, -1.9, -0.1], "roe_series": [8.2, -8.9, -8.0, -57.8, -121.4, -10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -5.3, "ocf_yield": -5.2, "gm_median": 4.8, "gm_std": 10.5, "gm_stab": -1.19, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": -16.0, "roe_median": -10.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 46.4, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 42.07, "capex_dep": 0.08, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 93.3, "debt_mv": 20.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 60.4, "np_yoy": -97.1, "np_vol": 196.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铂合金网", 32.0], ["贵金属化合物", 15.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.4, "ret_prev2_year": -29.5, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": 60.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -32.9, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 74, "bondness": 12}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 93%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 4.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.3%(经营现金流/市值 -5.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -119%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "华阳新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.7个百分点。"]}}