{"F": {"ts_code": "600280.SH", "name": "中央商场", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 14.413, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 352040.4576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.9, 50.5, 53.2, 55.2, 55.1, 53.8], "rev_series": [31.8, 28.8, 25.0, 24.5, 23.0, 21.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.5, -0.5, -1.5, -1.5, -3.9], "roe_series": [9.2, 4.8, -5.6, -17.4, -19.3, -81.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.1, "np_ttm": -4.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 8.2, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 53.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 11.3, "npm_median": -6.3, "roe_median": -17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.3, "fix_assets": 41.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 14.41, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 58.7, "debt_ebitda": 18.7, "debt_ratio": 97.4, "debt_mv": 166.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.1, "np_yoy": -226.0, "np_vol": 189.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 35.0], ["其他业务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.3, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": 18.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 8.0, "ret_120": -8.5, "ret_250": -11.9, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 56.6, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 68, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 97%,有息负债 59 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 42%、毛利率 53.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(商贸零售)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 8% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "中央商场:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.9个百分点。"]}}