{"F": {"ts_code": "600278.SH", "name": "东方创业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.57, "pe_ttm": 27.0153, "pb": 0.6663, "dv_ttm": 1.5127, "total_mv": 565360.7859, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.5, 3.9, 5.1, 5.3, 4.7, 5.2], "rev_series": [394.1, 435.5, 414.8, 336.5, 354.3, 330.5], "np_series": [2.7, 3.8, 3.7, 2.7, 2.2, 2.0], "roe_series": [4.8, 5.5, 5.3, 3.8, 2.9, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 335.2, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": -3.9, "gm_median": 5.1, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.5, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.67, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -18.2, "rev_yoy": 3.1, "np_yoy": 5.8, "np_vol": 22.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 3.0, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 22.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 8.6, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -35.8, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 43, "hard": 7, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.0 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 -3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.0 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 9% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "东方创业:PE 比行业中位高 14.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}