{"F": {"ts_code": "600272.SH", "name": "开开实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.57, "pe_ttm": 197.5377, "pb": 5.8056, "dv_ttm": 0.0854, "total_mv": 461479.3883, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 26.4, 23.7, 20.9, 17.5, 15.4], "rev_series": [7.6, 6.7, 8.9, 9.3, 10.9, 11.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.7, 4.1, 7.2, 6.8, 5.8, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.81, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 52.5, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -31.3, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": 88.3, "np_vol": 52.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["医药类", 32.0], ["批发类", 25.0], ["零售类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.2, "ret_prev2_year": 35.0, "ret_ytd": 29.0, "ret_pivot": 70.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 35.5, "ret_60": 59.8, "ret_120": 35.0, "ret_250": 26.9, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 81.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 45, "hard": 21, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 197.5 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 197.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 27%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 36% / 60% / 35%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "开开实业:PE 比行业中位高 175.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点。"]}}