{"F": {"ts_code": "600269.SH", "name": "赣粤高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.92, "pe_ttm": 12.6555, "pb": 0.4759, "dv_ttm": 4.3367, "total_mv": 915479.544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.5, 38.9, 32.1, 32.0, 39.3, 37.7], "rev_series": [50.7, 64.3, 67.6, 74.9, 59.9, 62.8], "np_series": [5.3, 8.9, 7.0, 11.8, 12.8, 12.8], "roe_series": [3.3, 5.5, 4.2, 6.8, 7.0, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.6, "np_ttm": 7.2, "ocf_ttm": 25.7, "fcf_ttm": 10.8, "fcf_yield": 11.8, "ocf_yield": 28.1, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.1, "fix_assets": 266.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.48, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 99.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 44.4, "debt_mv": 108.6, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": 22.5, "rev_yoy": -13.7, "np_yoy": -72.8, "np_vol": 37.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 7.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["车辆通行服务收入", 25.0], ["成品油销售收入", 10.0], ["成品油销售", 10.0], ["车辆通行服务收入：昌九高速公路", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.7, "ret_prev2_year": 46.0, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": 1.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.5, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -18.8, "ret_250": -21.3, "mdd_250": -30.4, "vol_250": 19.9, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 61, "hard": 100, "bondness": 67}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 12.7 倍、股息率 4.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%、固定资产占比 70%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 70%、毛利率 37.7% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路公路:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.8%(经营现金流/市值 28.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.7 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -1% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "赣粤高速:PE 比行业中位低 2.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 49.1个百分点。"]}}