{"F": {"ts_code": "600268.SH", "name": "国电南自", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.58, "pe_ttm": 20.8611, "pb": 2.8741, "dv_ttm": 1.8909, "total_mv": 1074490.8344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 24.0, 23.6, 24.1, 23.4, 26.3], "rev_series": [50.3, 58.9, 70.1, 76.2, 90.3, 96.4], "np_series": [0.7, 2.6, 1.5, 2.3, 3.4, 4.8], "roe_series": [2.8, 10.0, 5.5, 7.6, 10.5, 13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 93.1, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 58.2, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 41.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 46.6, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": 22.0, "np_vol": 108.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 17.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.6, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电网自动化", 28.0], ["电网保护及自动化类产品", 28.0], ["电厂自动化", 10.0], ["电厂保护及自动化类产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.1, "ret_prev2_year": 18.3, "ret_ytd": 2.9, "ret_pivot": 84.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.5, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": -29.2, "ret_250": 0.4, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 51, "hard": 10, "bondness": 35}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 22%,PE TTM 20.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.9 倍,PEG 0.78。", "自由现金流 5.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -10% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "国电南自:PE 比行业中位低 22.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}