{"F": {"ts_code": "600266.SH", "name": "城建发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.4985, "dv_ttm": 1.1628, "total_mv": 892569.705, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 22.3, 13.7, 20.4, 15.8, 20.0], "rev_series": [138.9, 241.8, 245.6, 203.6, 254.4, 302.8], "np_series": [12.3, 6.4, -9.3, 5.6, -9.5, -4.1], "roe_series": [4.8, 2.5, -3.7, 2.3, -4.1, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 276.5, "np_ttm": -10.9, "ocf_ttm": -40.3, "fcf_ttm": -40.7, "fcf_yield": -45.6, "ocf_yield": -45.2, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -19.4, "npm_median": -2.2, "roe_median": -1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.5, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.48, "capex_dep": 1.58, "interest_debt": 431.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.9, "debt_mv": 483.1, "payout": 64.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.7, "np_yoy": -111.3, "np_vol": 167.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 48.9, "fwd_pe2": 22.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 120.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["房地产开发(房屋销售)", 32.0], ["商品房销售", 32.0], ["租赁收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": 7.8, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": -2.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -19.8, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 44.5, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 1, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -10.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 79%,有息负债 431 亿,经营现金流/市值 -45.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -45.6%(经营现金流/市值 -45.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.58 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -0% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "城建发展:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}