{"F": {"ts_code": "600265.SH", "name": "*ST景谷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "林业Ⅱ", "sw3": "林业Ⅲ", "ind": "林业Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.0471, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 298669.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.9, 0.2, -0.4, 10.3, 2.3, 0.1], "rev_series": [0.5, 1.4, 1.1, 5.9, 4.5, 1.9], "np_series": [-0.2, -0.3, -0.2, 0.1, -0.7, -2.5], "roe_series": [-58.0, -26.7, -13.5, 4.0, -56.1, -159.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -5.8, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 0.2, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": -19.11, "gm_chg_2022": -25.3, "npm_median": -20.6, "roe_median": -26.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.2, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.05, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 19.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -54.6, "np_yoy": 99.8, "np_vol": 501.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["算力服务", 30.0], ["胶合板类产品", 11.0], ["胶合板", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.8, "ret_prev2_year": -3.5, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 78.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -2.5, "ret_120": 16.9, "ret_250": 0.0, "mdd_250": -29.3, "vol_250": 37.5, "pos_52w": 81.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 4, "hard": 50, "bondness": 3}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 0.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.3 个百分点;资产负债率 27%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -1911%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -1911%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / 17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「林业Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 167.2 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 85%。", "*ST景谷:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点。"]}}