{"F": {"ts_code": "600261.SH", "name": "阳光照明", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.21, "pe_ttm": 30.306, "pb": 1.2625, "dv_ttm": 4.0498, "total_mv": 428552.013, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 28.4, 28.3, 34.5, 33.4, 33.2], "rev_series": [48.2, 42.6, 37.3, 30.8, 31.8, 26.7], "np_series": [4.8, 3.2, 1.8, 2.2, 2.0, 1.9], "roe_series": [12.7, 8.3, 5.1, 6.0, 5.7, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 92.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.6, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": -1.7, "np_yoy": -48.8, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["LED灯具产品", 80.0], ["LED光源产品", 19.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.0, "ret_prev2_year": 4.5, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 47.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -5.9, "mdd_250": -26.4, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 81.5}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 53, "hard": 26, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 93%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 -10.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "阳光照明:PE 比行业中位低 30.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}