{"F": {"ts_code": "600257.SH", "name": "大湖股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "渔业", "sw3": "水产养殖", "ind": "渔业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.89, "pe_ttm": 115.6071, "pb": 3.4729, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 283448.7108, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 27.5, 23.7, 24.5, 23.1, 27.6], "rev_series": [9.4, 12.9, 10.9, 11.9, 10.4, 9.2], "np_series": [0.0, -1.8, -0.7, -0.1, -0.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [0.4, -17.0, -7.8, -0.9, -9.2, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": -5.8, "roe_median": -7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 7.9, "pb_calc": 3.47, "capex_dep": 2.99, "interest_debt": 6.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 46.4, "debt_mv": 24.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 756.4, "np_vol": 1745.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医疗分部", 25.0], ["医疗", 24.0], ["水产业务", 21.0], ["水产品", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.1, "ret_prev2_year": -23.5, "ret_ytd": -6.2, "ret_pivot": 36.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 16.6, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 75.3}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 52, "hard": 13, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 116 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.99 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 17% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「渔业」6 家中位:PE 108.6 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.9% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 31%。", "大湖股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 29.4个百分点。"]}}