{"F": {"ts_code": "600255.SH", "name": "鑫科材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.4, "pe_ttm": 114.203, "pb": 4.0885, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 614089.98, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.9, 12.3, 10.7, 7.2, 7.8, 6.8], "rev_series": [22.4, 32.5, 30.9, 32.0, 39.6, 47.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 1.0, -0.6, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [5.5, 4.8, 7.3, -4.4, 4.5, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -9.1, "ocf_yield": -5.6, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.4, "fix_assets": 16.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.09, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 17.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 60.2, "debt_mv": 28.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 15.4, "np_cagr3": -31.9, "rev_yoy": 25.5, "np_yoy": 116.0, "np_vol": 121.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铜基合金材料", 83.0], ["辐射特种电缆", 8.0], ["电线电缆", 8.0], ["其他产品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.6, "ret_prev2_year": 54.8, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 97.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -20.4, "ret_120": -5.6, "ret_250": -22.6, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 48.1, "pos_52w": 70.4}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 36, "hard": 55, "bondness": 20}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.1%(经营现金流/市值 -5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -20% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "鑫科材料:PE 比行业中位高 55.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}