{"F": {"ts_code": "600251.SH", "name": "冠农股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "果蔬加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.83, "pe_ttm": 14.3676, "pb": 1.9642, "dv_ttm": 1.4774, "total_mv": 841484.0688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 7.4, 9.0, 16.8, 8.1, 8.8], "rev_series": [27.7, 39.0, 24.1, 43.4, 38.6, 25.1], "np_series": [2.5, 3.0, 4.7, 7.1, 2.0, 3.5], "roe_series": [10.8, 11.7, 16.0, 20.7, 5.6, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.7, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -8.0, "ocf_yield": -7.0, "gm_median": 8.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 13.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 11.9, "debt_ebitda": 17.9, "debt_ratio": 30.8, "debt_mv": 14.2, "payout": 35.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -9.8, "rev_yoy": 0.3, "np_yoy": 79.1, "np_vol": 51.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 11.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["油脂化工产品", 13.0], ["油脂产品", 13.0], ["棉花产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.1, "ret_prev2_year": -11.8, "ret_ytd": 18.1, "ret_pivot": 66.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.8, "ret_60": 12.2, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": 28.6, "mdd_250": -34.0, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 83.6}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 30, "hard": 32, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.4 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 17.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.0%(经营现金流/市值 -7.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.4 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 12% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "冠农股份:PE 比行业中位低 24.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}