{"F": {"ts_code": "600250.SH", "name": "南京商旅", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.81, "pe_ttm": 418.0905, "pb": 4.8986, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 306848.3634, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 17.3, 12.0, 29.4, 28.2, 28.2], "rev_series": [9.6, 8.3, 8.2, 8.6, 7.8, 7.4], "np_series": [0.2, -1.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.2, -21.7, 7.2, 6.1, 7.8, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.4, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 4.9, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 53.6, "debt_mv": 16.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": -40.6, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": -18.9, "np_vol": 361.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["进出口贸易", 19.0], ["旅游服务", 15.0], ["照明销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.0, "ret_prev2_year": -22.0, "ret_ytd": -14.8, "ret_pivot": 23.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.5, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 7, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 418.1 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 418.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 13% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "南京商旅:PE 比行业中位高 351.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.4个百分点。"]}}