{"F": {"ts_code": "600248.SH", "name": "陕建股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "房屋建设Ⅱ", "sw3": "房屋建设Ⅲ", "ind": "房屋建设Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3896, "dv_ttm": 0.6897, "total_mv": 1077039.497, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 8.7, 9.1, 10.6, 11.7, 11.4], "rev_series": [1277.2, 1594.8, 1893.7, 1805.5, 1511.4, 1279.0], "np_series": [28.3, 34.8, 35.9, 39.6, 29.6, 2.2], "roe_series": [30.3, 20.3, 17.1, 16.3, 10.5, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1139.7, "np_ttm": -6.0, "ocf_ttm": -33.8, "fcf_ttm": -80.8, "fcf_yield": -75.1, "ocf_yield": -31.3, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 16.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.8, "fix_assets": 61.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.32, "capex_dep": 9.4, "interest_debt": 700.6, "debt_ebitda": 25.5, "debt_ratio": 89.2, "debt_mv": 650.5, "payout": 17.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.3, "np_cagr3": -60.3, "rev_yoy": -24.3, "np_yoy": -78.5, "np_vol": 40.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["建筑工程业务", 42.0], ["石油化工工程业务", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.7, "ret_prev2_year": 17.8, "ret_ytd": -17.4, "ret_pivot": -14.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -27.3, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 22.8, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 3, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -6.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 89%,有息负债 701 亿,经营现金流/市值 -31.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -75.1%(经营现金流/市值 -31.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 9.40 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房屋建设Ⅱ」8 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 8.9% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 34%。", "陕建股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}